Make a Small Bet and See How It Turns Into a Big One – Chance

Even if you work hard, are smart, or know many people, there’s one thing you can’t control that will make you successful.


Think about how chance affects many significant parts of your life, like who your parents are, who you choose to marry, and what kind of job you have.

You have some control and agency over your life and your decisions, but the chance is the piece that doesn’t fit together in the whole picture of your life. So, how do you handle chance?

It’s hard to know which moves to make if some of your success comes from chance.

How do you deal with not being good enough? It’s hard to tell when to hold them and fold them.

There’s a way you can make a lot of money without risking too much.


Easy and Safe Way to Huge Success with Little Bets

“Two fundamental benefits of the small bets approach are highlighted in Professor Saras Sarasvathy’s research: it allows us to focus on what we can afford to lose rather than making assumptions about how much we can expect to gain […] She emphasizes that “seasoned entrepreneurs will tend to determine in advance what they are willing to lose, rather than calculating expected gains.”

Peter Sims

You live in a great time because you can try this strategy again and again until it works for little or no money. You should make small bets that don’t set you back.

Make bets on things that have a lot of upsides and little risk.

Make smart strategic moves instead of making big bets on your future, bets that could wipe you out. You do this over time.

There were many more risks to starting a business a few decades ago. You may have had to get a loan from the bank to start your business. Then you’d need to have a storefront or warehouse, keep inventory before you could sell it, and hire people.

In this case, you don’t have a lot of chances to start a successful business. When Henry Ford tried to start a business for the third time, he probably wouldn’t have had a fourth chance.

These days, you’re in a great place to start businesses and projects that don’t require a lot of money to try again and again.

The following are some examples of small bets that you can make:

Creating Content

I write new things almost every day. In each post, I put the same amount of work into it, but some take off. Most of the time, the ones that fly make up for those that don’t. Even if they all failed, I’d lose nothing but time. There are a lot of places where you can make content like YouTube, Blogger, and WordPress that are either free or very cheap for people who have an internet connection and a computer.

Minimum Viable Product

There are a lot of cheap freelancers and manufacturers around the world, so you can come up with a new idea and test it out to see if it works before you start making more of it. It’s possible to run ads for a product idea and see how many people click on them.

Businesses With Low (or No) Inventory

You don’t have to keep any products in stock with affiliate marketing to sell them. You can think of each promotion you do to spread the word about these products as a bit of a bet that you might win. There are a lot of businesses where you can make money just by being the middle man, like wholesaling real estate or flipping things on Craigslist.

You can think of this idea of small bets in many different ways. You can try to find success in any area of your life in a way that protects your downside and maximizes your upside, but you can also try to do this.

People who want to be successful need to change how they think about risk.

Change Your Relationship With Risk

“You gain a significant advantage in the marketplace by doing things that are safe but feel risky.”

Taylor Pearson

It’s fun. The way society talks about risk is often not true. As I’ve shown you, there are low-cost ways to start a business.

Things you’re told are safe are often built on top of piles of risk:


This “safe investment” turns into a risky one if you lose your job or the economy goes down. This is especially true if you bought “too much house.”


Most people choose to work for someone else because it gives them more security than working for themselves. This is true on the surface. Even though, as we can all see, job security is just a myth. Many people make bad habits because they don’t think they’ll lose their jobs. People are swimming naked when the tide goes out. Nassim Taleb says it very well. Three of the worst addictions are heroin, carbohydrates, and having a job every month.


An 18-year-old getting $100,000 for any school doesn’t always work out. You’re told that going to school is a sure way to get a better job and live a better life, but is it worth it?

In general, you’re told this story about not taking risks that put you at many risks. Who is living a more risky life? There are two options: an employee in debt or someone who is debt-free but earns money that isn’t always steady.

You’d have to look at each situation individually, but it’s often that taking risks makes you more aware, which makes you feel safer.

The “little bet” lifestyle gives you the excitement of risk while reducing the chance that you will feel the pain of a huge failure. It’s also safe to build a bridge to this way of life.


How to Implement the Strategy

“The only truly safe thing you can do is try again and again.” To try, be rejected, try again, strive, and wish. There is no frontier, no passion, and no magic if there is no rejection.”

J. Altucher

You must do your job well. Keep the stable parts of your life and make small bets in your free time. A side job or becoming a blogger could be something you do in your spare time. Taking a small amount of your money and investing it might be a good idea for you.

I worked on my writing for five years while I worked full-time. A six-month stretch in which my side job made more money than my job made me ready to go full-time.

The answer is no. Do I still have to deal with risks? Absolutely. Is there a chance that I could die? There always is. The bets that I make are never too big.

You can have a life like this. You can do this. You can do it slowly and not risk your job. With no money, you can always bet with time. If you learn something new, it’s a small bet you can make for your future. If you play around on your phone, you can start a new life.

You’re making a bet no matter what you do. People who don’t do anything are making a bet. If you keep doing the same things you’re doing, your future will get better, or at least not get worse. You might as well try to live a life that gives you the best chance of success and see what happens after that.

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